Saturday, January 1, 2011

Who's for real in Conference USA?

Is this a one-bid league? Could it garner three, or even four dance tickets? Those determinations won't grow themselves out for another few weeks, but we at The Dagger wanted to take a look at the ultimate tweener conference.

And it's a situation right now that hasn't been picked apart by too many people, so allow us to display some evidence and come to a few conclusions that will surely be laughable by the time the calendar gets taken off the wall. More than anything, we've got some time to do some amateur-hour evaluating this week, so indulge us, K? Consider this an in-season, in-case-you-missed-it primer of sorts.

The primary question is, just how deep is C-USA, and will Memphis be challenged, or even struggle, en route to winning the regular-season conference title? Just like last year, when UTEP went 15-1, the answer appears to be yes. And this is still sort of alien for this assortment of Conference USA teams-prior to UTEP's 2010 run, the Tigers had won the league every season since massive realignment sent Louisville, Cincinnati, Marquette, DePaul and South Florida to the Big East.

As of Tuesday, the conference had seven teams with two losses or less (Central Florida was the only one without a loss still standing) and was ranked eighth by KenPom.com, one spot ahead of the Atlantic 10, which was expected to produce three or four NCAA tournament-worthy teams.

Let's look at Memphis (7-1) first. The Tigers haven't yet shown they're as good as expected. Plenty of time left, but Josh Pastner's not fully using all the tools at his disposal. To be fair, some of those tools have faulted him. Freshman Jelan Kendrick was booted off the team last month; veteran Angel Garcia left for overseas play this week.

The Tigers don't rank in the top 40 in any of the four factors-three of the four teams mentioned below do in one or two categories - and in its most recent game, against Kansas, showed not one, not two, but a few signs why it's unlikely to be elite this year. In 2006, 2007, 2008, the Tigers were clearly a level above the rest of C-USA.

So what about Central Florida (8-0)? You can point to the Dec. 1 win against Florida as a reason why UCF should be taken seriously. The Knights have hovered around .500 the past three seasons, so while it's fair to wait to see more from this team, like if it can win with a target on its back, you can't deny the athletic ability and shooting rate from it. Donnie Jones' group protects the tin and attacks it at elite levels, shooting 57.6 percent from the floor in effective field goal percentage and holding opponents to 38.7 percent.

Doubt them if you'd like, but that disparity is eye-popping, no matter the quality of collective foes.

Due to being senior-laden and returning so much statistical help from 2009-10, Southern Miss (7-1) was expected to be a legitimate contender, and so far signs are ... undecided. The only loss came against Ole Miss, a road game. Best win? At Cal. This team rebounds the ball offensively really well, and with three prominent players at 6-8 or taller leading the team, that number shouldn't dip. It should learn to put a hand in a passing lane, though; only six teams steal the ball less frequently than the Golden Eagles. On the heels of its only three-game road trip of the season, the best is yet to come.

Will Mike Davis ever earn respect? His 7-2 UAB team has two losses by a combined five points to Arizona State and Georgia. The best win was a neutral-court one against Arkansas. Jamarr Sanders and Aaron Johnson aren't the most effective scorers right now, but they're factoring into the team the most. The Blazers get a road game at Duke Jan. 5 before conference play begins. Does that make or break the spirit of that team? This has been a schizophrenic group in the past.

We'll close up shop with UTEP (6-2), which has the preseason Player of the Year pick in Randy Culpepper. The problem with Culpepper is, while he's a great highlight reel, he doesn't lift the team around him. And there isn't too much on this roster to like, offensively. When a team averages more than 70 possessions per game, as UTEP does, that's not a fruitful combination. Last year's C-USA Coach of the Year, Tony Barbee, is now at Auburn. No Derrick Caracter and Arnett Moultrie this season has also caused some visible erosion.

Plus, The Miners have a non-D-I team planted right in the middle of their schedule (Western New Mexico on Dec. 28), and that can only anger the hoops gods. They won't contend at the top of the league, but the possibility of being a spoiler exists.

Source: http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/basketball/blog/the_dagger/post/Who-s-for-real-in-Conference-USA-?urn=ncaab-296063

Richard Petiot Nick Petrecki Alexander Petrovic Jeff Petry

Tip Drill: Seven add/drop rules for Championship Week

Feel the buzz and electricity, gamers; your make-believe championship is in the balance. Let's review some add/drop principles, and starting lineup principles, as we try to get you into the winner's circle.

If you can't beat him, join him. Don't shake in fear when you look at the star quarterback on your opponent's roster – look at the waiver wire and see if you can get in on the production. Maybe you can get one of the Philip Rivers targets in San Diego, or snag a Blair White from Indy (now that Austin Collie is, sadly, back in post-concussion limbo).

Cover yourself for the late games. The Vikings illustrated this point Monday night, throwing a couple of surprise personnel moves at us (Brett Favre in, Adrian Peterson out). Your bench won't allow for 50 contingency plans, but make sure you have a few audibles ready if unusual late news filters in. And keep your flex or utility spots open as long as you can during the weekly game, to allow for maximum flexibility.

When looking for a defense or kicker, roll with a big favorite. These two positions are more team-dependent and game-result dependent than the standard spots, and you'll notice every week that the kickers and defenses from winning teams are the majority of your top scorers here. The biggest favorites in Week 16 are the Steelers (-14 over Carolina), Eagles (NL, but a heavy choice over the Vikings) and Chargers (-8 at Cincinnati).

Wind is your enemy; most other weather can be overcome. The Patriots didn't have any problems negotiating the Chicago snow two weeks ago, and we saw how easily the Bears scored at Minnesota on Monday night. Wind gusts of 25 mph and above are problematic for a passing game, but most of the other off-weather conditions tend to be overrated as fantasy considerations. If you prefer to use weather (or location) as a final tie-breaker, okay, I'll sign off on that. But in most cases it shouldn't be driving your decisions.

Go for the block. Take some time to identify what your opponent needs most in free agency; in many cases, it will make sense to grab a few players you don't need merely because you want them away from his roster. I'm not saying you should spam the waiver wire and pick up and drop every consideration for your opponent (that's not how the game should be played), but it's perfectly acceptable (and smart) to take 1-2 guys off the top of the pile.

Managing floor and upside. If you're a heavy favorite to win your game, your weekly decisions should be more conservative in nature. If you're a giant underdog in your matchup, you need to swing for more upside in your choices. Maybe that means linking a quarterback with a receiver, or gambling on a rushing quarterback over a more traditional dropback guy. (You also might want to make roster alternations if your game gets off to a crazy start in the middle of the week's flow.)

Go where the points are. When in doubt with a lineup choice, the game's over/under makes for a handy tie-breaker. Houston and Denver are expected to combine for 49 points this week – that's the highest total on the slate – while the Jets and Bears are down around 37.

These rules of thumb have served me well over the years, but they're certainly not the only ones out there. How do you make your decisions at this time of the year, and how do you break ties in key spots? Let's discuss in the comments.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Tip-Drill-Seven-add-drop-rules-for-Championship?urn=fantasy-299247

Mathieu Roy Michal Rozsival Joe Rullier Kris Russell

A Year After Scandal, Tiger Finds His Rhythm -- and Fans -- at Chevron

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THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. - The sun was shining, the Southern California air was crisp, gaggles of paunchy men in cargo shorts and golf shirts were clapping - and Tiger Woods was atop the leaderboard. It almost felt like, well, anytime before a certain driveway car crash turned Woods' life upside down a little over 12 months ago.

The atmosphere here at Sherwood Country Club, home of the $5 million Chevron World Challenge, was certainly more upbeat than it was a year ago. Back then, Woods was in hiding and the speculation about his extra-marital affairs was just tipping into outright mania. He skipped this tournament, which benefits his charitable foundation, and his absence cast a pall over the event - even if it did inspire some entertaining conversations among fans.

Woods was again the main topic of discussion at Sherwood on Friday, but for an entirely different reason: his play. The 34-year-old golfer, who has not won a tournament this year, shot an eagle on the second hole, part of a six-under-par round that extended his lead atop the 18-player field. He's now four strokes ahead of Graeme McDowell and five over Luke Donald and Rory McIlory, the 21-year-old phenom from Northern Ireland who was Woods' playing partner on Friday.

 

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Source: http://golf.fanhouse.com/2010/12/03/a-year-after-scandal-tiger-finds-his-rhythm-and-fans-at-c/

Kevin Marshall Paul Martin Radek Martinek Alec Martinez

Weekly Planner: Blazers Down, Hawks Up, That's the Way We Set Our Lineup

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It hasn't been a very good week for the Portland Trail Blazers. First they lost Greg Oden for the season and now it seems like they won't have their superstar shooting guard fully capable of playing plus-minutes all season long. It might only be a matter of time before they lose Brandon Roy all together.

Well, have no fear, Blazers fans and foes alike, next week only gets worse. Portland plays just twice this upcoming week, starting with a Friday matchup against the Hornets. Yes, the Blazers don't play next week until Friday! They play again on Sunday against the Nets, though by then they may only have a handful of healthy players.

With this schedule you should sit anyone not named Marcus Camby or LaMarcus Aldridge. And even then you might want to reconsider. Camby makes sense for his blocks and boards, while Aldridge remains a nice, yet unspectacular, fantasy big. It's rarely sunny in Portland these days.

 

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Source: http://fantasy.fanhouse.com/2010/11/19/weekly-planner-blazers-down-hawks-up-thats-the-way-we-set-ou/

Keith Yandle Nolan Yonkman Harry Young Teigan Zahn

Video analysis: UFC announces it's hitting Brazil in 2011

The UFC will continue its worldwide expansion in 2011. The promotion will hit a nation that already produces some of the best fighters in the world. Now it's time to make more money from the Brazilian MMA fanbase and build the sport even further. Dana White and UFC president Lorenzo Fertitta were in Brazil today to announce the UFC will hold a fight card in Aug. of 2011 in Rio de Janeiro.

Who will be on the fight card? Could it be the capper to Season 13 of "The Ultimate Fighter" with coaches Chael Sonnen and Wanderlei Silva meeting in "The Axe Murderer's" homeland? Why now? Yahoo's lead MMA writer Kevin Iole answers those questions. Iole said the presser had an impressive collection of legends, current and future, on hand. 

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Video-analysis-UFC-announces-it-s-hitting-Brazi?urn=mma-296480

Brett Lebda Nick Leddy Brian Lee Joonas Lehtivuori

Court Report: Week 10 Dashboard, Part II

Each Sunday, the Dashboard centralizes all the crucial information fantasy managers need to dominate their weekly head-to-head matchups or climb the standings in their rotisserie leagues. The Dashboard covers schedule analysis, status updates, adds, drops, watch list candidates, and deep league targets for managers of all skill levels. Quite simply, it is a comprehensive weekly cheat sheet that is packed with so much information that we’ve devoted two writers to producing it.

Add List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues

James Harden, SG, OKC (29% owned)
After a miserable start to the season that saw him score in double figures just six times over his first 18 games, Harden has improved dramatically over the past month, upping his shooting percentage by 4.4 percent and scoring average by 5.2 points. He’s achieved the latter by following in the footsteps of teammates Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook – getting more aggressive and finding a way to draw fouls and get to the line. Harden has more than doubled his free-throw attempts average over the past month, up from 2.7 per game in November to six in December. The marked progress on the court is certainly translating over to the fantasy realm: Harden has posted top-75 value over the past month and top-40 value over the past two weeks.

Brandon Bass, PF, ORL (30% owned)
What I said in last week’s Dashboard still applies; even after Bass averaged 19 points and 7.5 rebounds on 16-of-26 (61.5%) shooting in his last two starts. Though he’s been quite solid in those three categories, he’s been extremely lacking in three other areas: assists, steals, and blocks. In his last eight games, seven of which he has started, he’s averaged 0.9 assists, 0.4 steals, and 0.3 blocks. That just doesn’t cut it, no matter how many points he’s putting up. Even though he’s averaged close to 30 minutes a game over that stretch, his ceiling value is actually quite limited because of the non-existent peripheral numbers. To expect anything more than top-85 production is pushing it (exactly what he has provided over the past week). I’m all for picking him as a low-end utility / high-end bench option in standard leagues, but don’t get too carried away with your expectations given his recent string of double-digit scoring outputs.

Cut List - players who should not be rostered in standard formats

Anthony Morrow (56% owned), Corey Maggette (49% owned), J.J. Hickson (47% owned), Evan Turner (41% owned), Mehmet Okur (38% owned), Anthony Randolph (38% owned), Yao Ming (31% owned), Brendan Haywood (30% owned), Jarrett Jack (26% owned), Terrence Williams (26% owned)

Watch List - players currently owned in less than 40% of Yahoo! leagues to monitor closely in standard leagues

Jared Dudley, SG, SF, PF, PHO (25% owned)
Though it was teammate Mickael Pietrus who stole his thunder in Sunday’s loss to the Clippers, Dudley was stellar in his previous two starts with Jason Richardson out of the picture and jettisoned to Orlando. Not only did he total 60 points, 17 rebounds, 10 threes, and five steals in those two contests, but he did it against a pair of elite defensive units in Miami and San Antonio. With Vince Carter out for another five-to-seven days due to a troublesome left knee injury that could potentially force him to miss more time down the line, Dudley becomes of special interest to those in deeper formats. Though some may question his long-term viability and write off his recent spurt to nothing more than a hot streak, Dudley has proven he can maintain value in limited action, coming in at 75th in per-minute value amongst qualifiers (20+ GP).

Rudy Fernandez, SG, POR (15% owned)
Reality is finally starting to sink in for Brandon Roy, and with that realization comes the strong possibility that Fernandez could provide more than just short-term relief while Roy is sidelined. He’s been excellent during Roy’s four-game absence, averaging 16.5 points, 2.3 treys, 5.3 assists, 3.8 rebounds, and 1.8 steals, and with Roy’s status very much up in the air moving forward, Rudy is at worse a very nice insurance policy to have around just in case. There doesn’t appear to be a resolution to the Roy situation coming anytime soon, and I wouldn’t be completely shocked if the Blazers decided to shut him down for the season at some point. Consider Rudy a must-have handcuff if you’re invested in Roy and a high-end utility option otherwise.

Deep League Specials – players currently owned in five percent or less of Yahoo! leagues who warrant a roster spot in deep leagues (14 teams+)

Matt Bonner (5% owned), Raja Bell (5% owned), Mickael Pietrus (4% owned), Sasha Vujacic (4% owned), Ryan Anderson (3% owned), Earl Boykins (2% owned), Kwame Brown (2% owned), James Posey (2% owned), Jordan Hill (2% owned), Vladimir Radmanovic (this time I’m semi-serious)

Spark Plugs players with a set of especially favorable matchups this week who make for excellent short-term plays

Your Mavericks – @OKC, TOR, SAS, @MIL, @CLE
Only team with five games in Week 10
Categorical breakdown: threes (9th), assists (9th), FG% (2nd)

Your Kings, especially guards – LAC, MEM, @DEN, PHO
Categorical breakdown: points (3rd), threes (1st), assists (3rd), steals (7th), blocks (1st), FG% (3rd)

Your Bobcats, especially guards – DET, CLE, GSW
Categorical breakdown: points (4th), threes (2nd), rebounds (3rd), assists (1st), steals (4th), FG% (1st)

Your 76ers – @GSW, @PHO, @LAL
Categorical breakdown: points (2nd), threes (3rd), rebounds (t-1st), assists (2nd), steals (2nd), FG% (7th)

Your Heat – NYK, @HOU, GSW
Categorical breakdown: points (1st), rebounds (t-1st), assists (t-5th), steals (1st), FG% (5th)

Your Magic – @NJN, @CLE, NYK
Categorical breakdown: points (t-5th), threes (5th), rebounds (4th), assists (4th), FG% (6th), turnovers (2nd)

Short Circuitsplayers with a set of unfavorable matchups who have a good chance of struggling this week

Your Knicks – @MIA, @ORL, IND
Categorical breakdown: points (30th), threes (28th), assists (30th), blocks (30th), FG% (30th)

Your Bucks – ATL, @CHI, DAL
Categorical breakdown: points (29th), threes (26th), rebounds (26th), assists (25th), blocks (24th), FG% (t-28th)

Your Warriors – PHI, @ATL, @CHA, @MIA
Categorical breakdown: points (27th), threes (t-24th), rebounds (27th), assists (23rd), steals (22nd), blocks (26th), FG% (27th)

Your Clippers, especially guards – @SAC, UTA, ATL
Categorical breakdown: threes (29th), assists (28th), steals (28th)

Your Suns three-point specialists – PHI, DET, @SAC
Categorical breakdown: threes (30th)

Your Cavaliers, especially big men – ORL, @CHA, @CHI, DAL
Categorical breakdown: points (28th), rebounds (30th), assists (24th), FG% (t-28th)

Follow Justin on Twitter @jphanned

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Photos via Getty Images

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Court-Report-Week-10-Dashboard-Part-II?urn=fantasy-300635

Ben Holmstrom Riley Holzapfel Shawn Horcoff Quinton Howden

Shinya Aoki embarrasses himself in brutal loss at Dynamite!! 2010

Shinya Aoki is one of the world's best fighters at 155 pounds but there are times you wonder if his mind strays. He accepted a ridiculous fight at K-1's year ender and paid the price.

After a round fought under kickboxing rules, Aoki tried a sloppy a shot and got destroyed by a knee to the face from Yuichiro Nagashima. Aoki was out cold for several minutes. He made it less than 15 seconds into the second round.

Aoki (on the left) acted like a clown in the opening round. The three-minute long round, waged under K-1 rules but with four ounce gloves. Aoki tried to avoid a real fight by illegally clinching and throwing Nagashima to the mat. He also tried several  goofy pro wrestling-style dropkicks, and attempted to vault himself off the ropes a few times. The result of the shenanigans was Aoki falling to the floor and wasting away the round.

Apparently, Nagashima expected a quick shot in the second and was waiting to deliver that big knee. In 2009, some considered Aoki the No. 1 lightweight in the world. He lost a one-sided fight to Gilbert Melendez in 2010 and now this debacle. 

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/mma/blog/cagewriter/post/Shinya-Aoki-embarrasses-himself-in-brutal-loss-a?urn=mma-302053

Lee Baldwin Keith Ballard Mark Barberio Cam Barker