Thursday, July 14, 2011

Lames: Somewhere in Jayson Werth?s beard is an undervalued star


With his club clinging to a one-run lead Tuesday against the destitute Cubs, Jayson Werth confidently stepped into the box against touchable reliever Jeff Samardzjia. It was the bottom of the seventh. Two men, Danny Espinosa at second and Laynce Nix at first, crept away from their respective bags itching to advance. A timely insurance run or three was needed.

Instead of delivering in the clutch, Werth grounded out weakly to shortstop Starlin Castro ending the frame. Miffed by yet another blown opportunity, the perplexed outfielder, signed for an exorbitant sum this past offseason to produce in those exact situations, stood off first base, a smirk adorning his face. He swung his head side-to-side in disgust. Boos rained down from the stands.

His final line: 0-for-4, two strikeouts, six left on base.

Typical.

Werth backers who've combed box scores nightly hoping to see crooked numbers next to their $20-plus investment have often glanced at goose eggs. Mired in an 18-for-116 nosedive since June 1 ? he ranks 773rd overall and 109th among OFs over that span ? the fruitless Nat has triggered numerous expletive-laced tirades across Fantasyland, explosions that would make a Nancy Grace diatribe about Casey Anthony seem tame. After all, Juan Pierre has offered more value during that stretch.

For the love of Teddy Roosevelt!

Owner frustration over Werth is understandable, though somewhat overreactive. Yes, his downward-trending ISO ('10: .236, '11: .154) and dramatic groundball rise ('10 GB%: 37.0, '11: 45.3) are concerns. However, because of his proclivity for strikeouts (26.9 K%), he's often experienced prolonged dry spells throughout his career. No shocker.

His downturn in power was also predictable. Shifting from Citizen Bank's short porches to Nationals Park's neutral surroundings was bound to trim a handful of homers.

Though his owners will be the first to tell you how Werth-less the "bust" truly is, ignoring BA, he's still provided respectable across-the-board production. In fact, he's on pace to tally quite possibly the most deplored 20-20 season in virtual sports history, a feat only six outfielders accomplished last year.

Supremely confident a break out is near, the 32-year-old has remained levelheaded, banking on his bat to reignite in the second half. From the Washington Post:

"This game is all about guys picking each other up. You don't need everybody every night. But you do need somebody. I've always played my best ball towards the end of the season, not that that's any excuse. I'm not playing well right now, but I'm confident the numbers will be there at the end, and I'll make good on what I started out to do."

History tells us a resurgence is indeed just around the corner. His career splits verifies it:

Pre-All Star: .257/.350/.462/.811
Post-All Star: .276/.376/.479/.854

Traded this week for Adam Dunn, Shaun Marcum and Sergio Santos in one-for-one deals, he's a multi-cat scorer that should be pursued. Without question he's a top-level buy low option. With Roger Bernadina, Espinosa, a healthy Ryan Zimmerman and Michael Morse hitting in front of him, positive stats will eventually come pouring in.

Soon jeers over Werth will turn into cheers.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 286 at-bats, .274 BA, 12 HR, 37 RBI, 38 R, 11 SB

Other passengers currently riding southbound (or about to) on the Lames train ?

Elvis Andrus, Tex, SS ? A hunk, a hunk of burning love Elvis is not. After a blistering June, the prized shortstop has cooled, batting just .174 over his past 28 at-bats. A sore wrist and passive plate approach have fueled the mini-slump, an episode he experienced during his unmemorable July last year (.216 BA). To avoid a similar fate, Rangers hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh recently told Andrus to maintain an opposite-field approach but not at the expense of ignoring favorable pitches to turn on. In other words, be more aggressive. Evidently, the advice paid off. Going 4-for-4 with two doubles and three runs on Wednesday against Baltimore, it appears his presence in Lames territory was only brief. On pace for career bests in steals (46), runs (98) and RBIs (57), he has definitely exceeded the Noise's "overvalued" preseason expectations. If he can stave off the injury imp and keep a mean streak, Andrus will be a fixture inside the shortstop top-five over the remainder of the season. I'll take my crow beak-side up please.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 277 at-bats, .273 BA, 2 HR, 23 RBI, 44 R, 19 SB

Jhoulys Chacin, Col, SP ? Over the first three months of the season, the righty Jhoulys'd the beast logging eight wins with a 3.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 7.95 K/9, good for the 28th-best line among starters according to Baseball Monster. But bothered by forearm stiffness ? his last start was skipped due to the setback ? Chacin's monstrous side has been caged. Over his past two turns, he's allowed 10 earned in 10 innings pitched. Even if healthy, expect his production to slip further. Under the microscope, his profile is diseased. A sharp drop in swinging strike percentage ('10: 10.8, '11: 9.3), severe case of gopheritis (17.6 HR/FB%, 1.23 HR/9) and presumably unsustainable 12.7 line-drive rate are�ominous�indicators. FIP (4.33) and tERA (4.50) tools both predict a significant ERA increase. Shipped this week for Ryan Zimmerman, Alexei Ramirez and C.J. Wilson in one-for-one deals, Chacin needs to be shopped. A rocky second half is likely coming.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 76.1 IP, 5 W, 4.48 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 62 K

Jay Bruce, Cin, OF ? Finally, this is the year Bruce has put it all together. Take note, Travis Snider. Fueled by a Jennifer Anniston-hot May (Diggin' the dominatrix "Horrible Bosses" look), he's on pace to obliterate previous career benchmarks in homers (35), RBIs (98), runs (91) and steals (11). Unfortunately, Cincy's multi-cat rock has softened in recent days seen in his 21-point BA declension since June 18. Bruce admitted last week to MLB.com maintaining consistency is his No. 1 goal. However, because of his rather wide strikeout-to-walk disparity (0.41 BB/K), wild stat-swings will continue to be the norm, not the exception. His extreme fly-ball tendencies should lead to several more homers, but with pitchers attacking him with more curves and changes, offerings he's struggled against, unsteady production over the second half is in the offing. That is, of course, if he doesn't make the necessary adjustments. Launching only his second homer since June 1 Wednesday in The Lou, he might be on the verge of another binge. But more than likely Bruce's production for 2011 has peaked.

Fearless Forecast (rest of season): 266 at-bats, .261 BA, 13 HR, 39 RBI, 38 R, 4 SB

Want to bean Brad in the head? Bring the heat on Twitter @YahooNoise.

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Image courtesy of US Presswire

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Lames-Somewhere-in-Jayson-Werth-s-beard-is-an-u?urn=fantasy-wp4691

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