The Chicago Cubs are coming off a fifth-place season, so perhaps it's not a surprise that this year's sales pitch to prospective ticket buyers is all about the quality of their opponents. You'd like to think that a team with a $140 million payroll wouldn't have to go that route, but, again: Fifth-place.
The franchise finished tenth in the National League in run-scoring last season (685) and 13th in run-prevention (4.18 team ERA), so it's kinda tough to point to anything they did well. At least they didn't flatline under Mike Quade at the end of 2010. That's something. Quade earned himself the full-time managerial gig after leading Chicago to a 24-13 finish last year. Bold prediction: The team will not maintain such a winning percentage in 2011.
What can we expect from the ex-Rays?
Back in December, the Cubs inked Carlos Pena to a one-year, $10 million contract. As make-good deals go, that's a nice payday for the player. Pena hit just .196 last season, .227 the year before, and .247 in 2008. It's overwhelmingly likely that he'll continue to be a fantasy liability in batting average — perhaps a severe liability. He routinely posts one of the lowest contact rates in baseball (career 69.7 percent). Pena will strikeout 160 times, he will hit .230. If you're projecting anything better than that … well, you might wanna double-check your math.
Of course Pena still has fantasy value, because the ball can travel a long way when he actually hits it. He's averaged 36 home runs per year over the past four seasons, and he still managed 28 bombs in a forgettable 2010 campaign, while bothered by a plantar fascia injury. Fantasy-wise, he's a serious asset in the power categories, but you'll want to make sure to have someone like Mauer or Ichiro on your fake roster so as to offset Pena's miserable average. Wrigley Field is obviously a nice landing spot for Carlos; the park has ranked as the third-friendliest run-scoring environment each of the last two seasons.
Matt Garza will join Chicago's rotation in 2011, having been the centerpiece of a multi-prospect trade in January. The degree-of-difficulty is clearly lessened in the National League, exchanging DHs for pitchers and pinch-hitters. But it's also worth noting that Garza is a flyball pitcher headed for a power hitter's park, and the Cubs' defense isn't exactly an upgrade over the Rays'. It's fine to be optimistic about Garza's fantasy potential in the year ahead, but let's not get irrational, projecting massive improvements in ratios. Value him like a slightly less-crazy Carlos Zambrano.
How much production will the Cubs get from their $37 million outfield?
Well, the easy answer here is that they will not, in all likelihood, get an $18 million season out of Alfonso Soriano, nor will they get a $13.5 million season out of Kosuke Fukudome. It's possible that Marlon Byrd will deliver $5.5 million worth of stats, I suppose. In any case, I'm merely using this question as a way to draw attention to the insane shopping habits of Chicago GM Jim Hendry. Tyler Colvin was fairly impressive in his rookie campaign (20 HR, .816 OPS), and he proved to be equally effective against right-handed and left-handed pitching, but he'll enter 2011 with something less than an everyday role.
(Shakes Magic 8-ball).
Reply hazy, try again.
(Shakes Magic 8-ball).
Concentrate and ask again. (More shaking…)
The Cubs intend to have a leadoff hitter, we think. But Quade can't identify a perfect candidate on the current roster:
"You look at this club, as I do right now, and you say, 'Who's a perennial leadoff guy?'" Quade said. "'Who's the prototypical leadoff guy? Do we have one?' And I would say, 'I don't think so.' OK, when the answer is 'I don't think so,' I can mix and match. Maybe somebody asserts himself as that guy, again, keeping an open mind and just making sure you weigh all the variables."
Starlin Castro is really the only Cubs regular with respectable speed, and he actually led the team in batting average in his age-20 season (.300). Perhaps when the manager makes noises about an unnamed player asserting himself this spring, he's thinking of the second-year shortstop. Castro has a terrific contact rate (85.9), but only modest on-base skills (29 BBs in 509 plate appearances). But the season ahead should really be about consolidation and development for Castro. Don't assume he's going to make a value leap, fantasy-wise. If he can simply continue to hold his own in the majors as a 21-year-old, you should be impressed.
Blake DeWitt and Jeff Baker are consistently mentioned as leadoff candidates for Chicago, too, a fact that probably isn't keeping Tony La Russa up at night. Fukudome might be able to hold down the job in April, the only calendar month in which he's competent.
Will Aramis Ramirez bounce back from his unforgivably bad season?
If you're the sort of fantasy owner who gets excited about contract-year players, then you're no doubt interested in Ramirez. To his credit, Ramirez had a solid-if-unspectacular second half last season — 15 HR, .276 AVG, .847 OPS — so it can be argued that the bounce-back actually began in July. He's dealt with injuries each of the last two years (shoulder in '09, thumb in '10), so a Cubs apologist would probably tell us that a healthy Ramirez, at age 32, can plausibly deliver a 90-30-100-.300 fantasy line, just like old times.
But Ramirez's profile at the plate changed last year, as his line-drive and groundball percentages plummeted (15.8 and 27.4), and he hit the ball in the air at an unusual rate (56.8 flyball percentage). He'll have a few adjustments to make. This is one of those rare cases where you'll want to monitor the spring results of a veteran player. Third base is a thin position in fantasy — so thin, in fact, that Ramirez was selected in Round 8 of the early mock, despite last season's messiness. Bottom line: If you make this guy someone else's fantasy problem, then he can't disappoint you.
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