Five pick'em selections against the spread, one survivor opinion, those are the rules. Please include your own selections, and rationale, in the comments.Patriots +4.5 at Steelers: Tom Brady's got a sterling career record in bounce-back games following a loss, and I like that the Patriots get one extra day to prepare here (given that Pittsburgh played Monday). Pittsburgh's defense gets a lot of ink, but how good is the secondary? New England will find enough holes to keep this game competitive.
Rams +6 at Niners: I've liked Sam Bradford from Day One, I respect Steve Spagnuolo's creative blitz packages, and I don't completely trust the San Francisco offense, no matter who the quarterback is. This line should be closer to three, and I would not be surprised at all if the Rams won outright.
Falcons -1 vs. Ravens: Matt Ryan has just one defeat at home since he turned pro, while Joe Flacco has been a mess on the road in 2010 (69.8 rating, 6.3 YPA, four TDs, six picks). When you have a solid team at home asked to give a small number, you pounce.
Lions +3 at Bills: It seems like the line has overreacted to the Matthew Stafford injury, but let's remember that Shaun Hill was moderately productive when asked to play earlier this year. Sure, the Bills are plucky and better than their winless record, but I respect Detroit's body of work far more than Buffalo's body of work. Don't question this funky line, just take the points and say thanks.
Eagles -3 at Redskins: Washington's earlier victory at Philly was filled with flukes, not to mention a Michael Vick injury in the first half. The Eagles are the superior team by any logical measure (rushing offense, rushing defense; passing offense, passing defense) and this week they'll make it clear in front of a national audience.
Survivor: You have to take the Giants if you still have them, even as I expect Dallas to be improved in their first game post-Wade. I locked myself out of the G-Men weeks ago (Week 1 over Carolina), so I'll be using Tampa over Carolina, by default.
Last Week: 3-2 (23-20 season).
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