Every Friday during the NFL season we review the Yahoo! weekly position ranks. When an expert breaks from the herd, they're asked to show their work. We try to focus on names near the start/sit line in public leagues, or on acts of complete lunacy. Let's play the feud…
Ahmad Bradshaw – Behrens RB rank 13, Yahoo! composite rank 20
Last week, Bradshaw's demotion from the starting role — a switch that even Brandon Jacobs believes is temporary — resulted in an almost perfectly even workload split between two backs who complement each other well. Jacobs carried 14 times for 87 yards; Bradshaw finished with 13 touches for 83 yards. And this was in a game where New York lost time-of-possession by nearly nine minutes.
In this backfield, you really don't need to stress about which running back has the starter's designation. Ahmad was utilized on the Giants' opening series, and not exclusively on third downs. Over the course of the afternoon, he received carries in all areas of the field — inside the red zone, and deep in New York's territory. At no point was ball security an issue; Bradshaw covered up the football as if it was a holy relic. (Which, in the NFL, it is).
For me, the bottom line is that Bradshaw remains the Giants' most dangerous back, starter or not. Based on usage against Jacksonville in Week 12, it's clear that head coach Tom Coughlin has not lost confidence in him. (If you're still hung up on depth chart issues, note that Coughlin said earlier this week that Bradshaw was "very much in the hunt" to start. But that misses the point). The match-up ahead is excellent for both Jacobs and Bradshaw, as the Giants are at home facing a Washington defense that ranks last in the NFL in yards-per-carry allowed (4.9). The last time Ahmad faced the 'Skins (Week 15, 2009), he knocked me out of the fantasy playoffs in two leagues (12 touches, 90 yards, 2 TDs). He'll help your fake team on Sunday.
Ahmad Bradshaw – Pianow RB rank 32, Yahoo! composite rank 20
When appraising the New York backfield, it's important that we don't get caught up in what we want to have happen, or how we'd run this team ourselves. Don't trip yourself up with Wishing It Were So error.
If I inherited this offense, sure, Ahmad Bradshaw would start. He's more versatile and explosive than Brandon Jacobs. But the fact of the matter is that Jacobs took back the starting role last week, and while both players ran well, Jacobs had more carries than Bradshaw (14 to 9) and a higher YPC (6.2 to 5.4). Bradshaw tacked on four caches for 34 yards, so it turned into a fairly even time-share, fine. But how aggressively should we rank a non-starting back who's not the automatic goal-line option? And what happens should Bradshaw have another fumbling episode? It's not a major part of my ranking, but we have to consider the possibility that Bradshaw makes an early error in this game and revisits the Tom Coughlin doghouse because of it.
Some fantasy teams will have no choice but to start Bradshaw and hope for the best, based on their depth. Take heart, there's an upside here - you're getting New York's most talented back and the Redskins hand out 4.9 yards a carry. But I'm not dialing up No. 44 unless I'm forced into that move in Week 13. I want backs with a clearer path to touches and an easier path to potential touchdowns.
Sidney Rice – Behrens WR rank 32, Yahoo! composite rank 37
When you look at the fantasy staff's composite rank on Sidney, it may not seem like I'm an outlier. But everyone else slotted him in the 40s, and I've got him ranked in the low-30s, as an acceptable WR3. It appears that I'm the only analyst who's giving him the green light as a starting fantasy option, so I should probably explain myself.
Even though Rice didn't fill the stat sheet in Week 12, he and Brett Favre had a couple of near-misses that could have significantly changed the fantasy line for both players. Rice was targeted on a deep ball down the middle early in the second quarter, but was nudged off his route; Favre later misfired on a pass that should have gone for 20-plus. True, Rice was only targeted four times on the afternoon, but it's not like the Vikings were pass-heavy. Favre only put the ball in the air 23 times, his second-lowest attempt total this season. You'll recall that Rice was targeted 10 times in his 2010 debut, just two weeks ago. Be patient. There's a breakout game coming.
Obviously there’s a great deal of hesitancy entrusting a quarterback coming off a 166-yard performance, especially in a pressure-packed week. But the Sanchise will again be open for business.
The maligned passer simply chocked up last week’s disaster against the Bengals as “an off night.” In his case, greed definitely wasn’t good. Several times he passed up easy conversions, unwisely choosing to make lower percentage throws. His resulting 71.4 passer rating left a lot to be desired.
Expect Sanchez to regain his confidence in the battle for AFC supremacy.
New England’s green secondary has been the weakest link in its defensive chain this season. Including Sanchez’s TD hat-trick against the Pats in Week 2, the unit has given up seven multi-TD passers in 11 games. They’ve also allowed an astonishing 299.1 yards per game to QBs, the second-most in the league. This time with Santonio Holmes in uniform – he was serving a suspension in Week 2 – the Jets’ vertical attack will bombard Foxboro relentlessly. Remember, prior to last week’s sidestep in Cincinnati, Sanchez had totaled at least 25 fantasy points in three consecutive games. Each of those opponents (Det, Cle and Hou) had vulnerable secondaries similar to New England’s. A finishing line around 290 yards with 2-3 touchdowns is certainly attainable.
Jonathan Stewart – Funston RB rank 18, Yahoo! composite rank 23
The claws are finally starting to get sharp again for the Panthers’ running game. The once-vaunted backfield has struggled for most of the season but ranks 14th in fantasy points per game in the past three weeks, two of those games coming against Baltimore and Cleveland – both better than average at stopping the run. Stewart joined the party last week with 98 rushing yards against the Browns. He’d missed the previous two games because of a concussion, but he can be expected to shoulder a big load the rest of the way as Carolina gives him a test run as the lead back of the future – DeAngelo Williams won’t be coming back. Stewart won’t lack for motivation this week, as he’ll be playing in Seattle – he played his high school ball about an hour south. And to help make the homecoming a smashing success for Stewart, the Seahawks offer up the second-worst fantasy run defense over the past five weeks. They’ve been pummeled ever since injuries to DLs Red Bryant and Colin Cole. Don’t be surprised if Stewart comes close to what he did on the ground last week, with a touchdown added in this week.
He's had a nice revival during the Jon Kitna days, posting three big catch games including last week's 10-pack against the Saints. But it hasn't been all sunshine and lollipops - Witten's production from Weeks 9-11 was marginal (8-99-0), and he hasn't scored a touchdown since Halloween. Now he's up against the Colts defense, the best unit in the league when it comes to marking the tight end. I can't consider Witten an automatic starter against this opponent.
Earl Bennett – Evans WR rank 34, Yahoo! composite rank 52
Most owners would rather wrestle a silverback gorilla than count on a No. 3 receiver who only recently popped up on the fantasy radar. The matchup, however, is awfully enticing. Over the past few weeks, Jay Cutler’s former college teammate has become one of the QB’s most indispensable targets. Though his yardage numbers have been unexciting, he’s crossed the chalk three times since Week 9, including a pair of TDs last week versus Philly.
Against Detroit, the slot receiver, Chicago’s “dirty worker” according to Cutler, could be up to his elbows in looks. The Hello Kitties have have been especially soft in coverage across the middle. Danny Amendola and Wes Welker burned them repeatedly on simple cross routes. Bennett, whose very effective between the hashmarks, will likely carve out a prominent role. A double-digit fantasy tally is very possible. Keep in mind, since week 8, the Lions have surrendered eight WR touchdowns, the third-most in the league.
Randy Moss – Funston WR rank 27, Yahoo! composite rank 32
If Kerry Collins doesn’t play this week, then I’ll be seriously backpedaling from this Moss ranking. But it’s looking good for Collins. And if it’s looking good for Collins, it should be all good for Moss and the Titans passing game against a Jacksonville secondary that has been the third-most generous unit in fantasy to opposing wide receivers. When these teams faced in Week 6, Collins and Vince Young combined for two first half touchdown passes to jump out to a 20-0 lead, which they milked in the second half with RB Chris Johnson. I’d expect the game to be closer this time around and the Titans should have to throw more than they did previously. Moss wasn’t around for the first meeting, and he’s hardly been on the radar in the few weeks he’s been with Tennessee. But he’s played only a couple quarters with Collins, a quarterback with the kind of arm strength and vertical ability that suits Randy Moss’ talents. By ranking him 27th this week, I’m not asking for a lot of him. Just that typical 3/50/1 line that we saw so often in his final days with New England and short stint with the Vikings.
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Images courtesy of US Presswire
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