Friday, February 25, 2011

Another day, another Jeter; scenes from an industry auction

I know most of our Arcade readers honed their roto craft in the mixed-league world, and to be honest that's my preferred format as well. But it's always fun to step into different formats and challenges, and on Wednesday afternoon I participated in an American League-only Industry Auction set up by the folks at CBS Sports.

Details: 12 teams, 30 roster spots (23 active, 7 bench), $260 to spend, 5x5. Full auction results are here.

There was some crazy spending in the early going – Robinson Cano went for $49 (I still don't understand that), Adam Dunn fetched $38, Jose Bautista chased up to $32. My general strategy was the same as it usually is for this type of exercise – I wanted a balanced offense where most of the hitters participate – collecting at-bats is the key – and I wanted an anchor or two on the pitching staff, followed by low-cost, high-upside guys. I'd prefer to avoid single-dollar players if possible; they're actually good things to have in a keeper league (as potential trading chips), but I prefer to avoid the singletons in a one-and-done league (in part because they usually come after losing financial flexibility in the endgame, something I try to avoid whenever possible).

Let's have a look at my haul and try to make some sense of things. We'll start up the middle, because that's where the key to my team is.

Middle: Aaron Hill $20, Derek Jeter $23, Asdrubal Cabrera $13

Full disclosure: I've got no love affair with Jeter, or the Yankees. I grew up in New England. If Derek Jeter could go 0-for-600 this year and strike out 450 times, it would warm my heart (though I'd be annoyed when they handed him a Gold Glove for nothing). But I keep drafting him this winter, for mock teams and for real teams. This is a tremendous buying opportunity. Career regression is not always linear, especially when we're talking about a Hall of Fame athlete, and the undertow of the Yankees lineup will be very good to his run production, even if he's not an elite hitter again.

Most smart roto players appreciate how scarce the shortstop position is this year in mixed leagues. Have a long look at the shortstop board. It's not pretty. And when you head over to AL-only, it's truly a wasteland. No Hanley. No Tulo. No Reyes. No Rollins. No Drew, no Desmond. Anyone got a cell number for Tanner Boyle?

The $23 on Jeter came fairly early in the auction, before anyone had a reason to panic over the board. Consider some of the prices that came later in the day: Elvis Andrus $27 (maybe you see a logical reason to slot him over Jeter, I certainly don't). J.J. Hardy $15. Alcides Escobar $13. And a bunch of teams put $1 or $2 scrubs into the middle infield, guys who will be lucky to see 300 at-bats.

I was price enforcing on Cabrera but I like him at that number. Hill only needs a mild average bump to make him a $20 player again.

Corner: Billy Butler $27, Alberto Callaspo $4, Felipe Lopez $1

I didn't want to chase the high-end corners (Adrian Gonzalez went for $42, Mark Teixeira $38), and by the time Butler's name came up, he was the only significant commodity left. Callaspo will play enough to be handy in this format, and while Lopez is a lottery ticket on a minor-league deal, he's still young enough to potentially make a comeback. My utility player is Mike Aviles (just $3), and he'll see plenty of time at third base this year (he didn't qualify at short, per the CBS settings).

Outfield: Shin-Soo Choo $34, Coco Crisp 15, Johnny Damon $7, David DeJesus $7, Juan Rivera $2, Mike Aviles $2 (utility)

Choo is the biggest ticket on my club, a quiet five-category man who has hit .300 the last two years. You'd like to see a little more contact with him, but at least his strikeout and walk rates were moving in the right direction last year. If Crisp can do his thing for 110-120 games, I'll make my money back; anything past that, he should be a profit player. DeJesus illustrates the difference between a mixer and an AL-only pool; he's barely worth considering in the full universe, but he could be useful in this group as Oakland's No. 3 hitter. Damon, I just want 450 at-bats and some stat collection. Rivera is a concern, as Toronto is looking to unload him and if he's dealt out of the AL, he's dead in this format.

Catcher: John Jaso $6, Jason Kendall $2.

It's an ugly underbelly, no doubt. Hopefully I've collected enough at-bats at the other positions that the suck here won't hurt me. Maybe Jason can approach what he did last year – Joe Maddon seems to like him – but Kendall is a spotty offensive player when he is healthy, and he's not expected to be back until the middle of the season anyway (I flaked on his status during the draft, didn't realize he was quite as hurt as he is). So it goes. Finding a free-agent catcher won't be easy, with seven bench spots and DL spots gumming up the works.

Pitcher: Jon Lester $29, Dan Haren $25, Joakim Soria $23, Fernando Rodney $8, Rick Porcello $3, Marc Rzepczynski $3, Grant Balfour $2, Hisanori Takahashi $1, Derek Holland $1

I bought the Big Three relatively early in the proceedings, all of them price-enforce purchases. Maybe I was a buck or two favorable on Lester, and maybe I overpaid a buck or two on Haren. I have to sweat out possible trades with Soria, but on skills he's worth the ticket. Most of my nominations past this trio were high-strikeout pitchers who were now out of my budget.

It would have been nice to get a proven third starter or second closer, but I wanted to devote my resources to offense and take more chances with the pitchers. For all of Rodney's fleas, he only needs 10-12 saves before I'll make my money back on him. Porcello is a safe play at his price and offers some upside. Holland's pedigree still sings to me, and a lefty has a better chance of beating that park than a righty does.

Reserve Draft: Kevin Millwood (please sign in the AL), Michael Wuertz, Jason Frasor, Jake Fox, Robinson Tejeda, Ryan Perry, Eric Chavez.

Understand that 276 players are already off the board when we get to this point, AL-only. These names are not supposed to entice you. If I get contributions from 1-2 of the names here, I'll be happy.

(Now is when you hammer my results and tell me how I'd finish 27th in your 12-team hometown league. Have at it. If you want to sneak in some comments about the nuances of AL-only and NL-only formats, or auction strategy, even better. And let's definitely talk about some of the prices for players I didn't purchase.)

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Image courtesy Associated Press. 

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Another-day-another-Jeter-scenes-from-an-indus?urn=fantasy-319783

Greg Nemisz Kris Newbury Scott Nichol Rob Niedermayer

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