The MLB facts of life aren't particularly kind to the Blue Jays these days. Toronto has to go up against the checkbooks of the Yankees and Red Sox and the talent stockpile of the Rays, and heck, even the Orioles seem positioned for an improved future.
But the Jays might have a secret weapon in the battle, an unheralded talent about to explode on the scene. General Manager Alex Anthopoulos looks like a rising star.
Anthopoulos is still new in the big chair – he replaced the overmatched J.P. Ricciardi in October of 2009 – but he's already collected some impressive trade pelts. Brandon Morrow came over last winter in the Brandon League/Johermyn Chavez deal. Yunel Escobar was a buy-low purchase in July. The farm system has been significantly revamped – ESPN prospect czar Keith Law has Toronto slotted fourth on his 2011 Organizational Ranks. And then there's the Vernon Wells salary liquidation of a few weeks ago, a borderline miracle for the Toronto organization. If you ran into Anthopoulos at the roulette wheel, you'd be chasing his numbers.
The Blue Jays gave us some fun moments in 2010, leading the majors in home runs (a whopping 257) and topping everyone in slugging percentage – and those numbers came despite a few notable disappointments. Time to dig into the roster and see what we can find.
What the heck do we do with Jose Bautista in 2011?
The Regression Police are having a blast with Bautista's shocking 54-homer season. Don't chase last year's numbers, they tell us. Don't expect another 54 dingers, they advise us. Don't overpay for this season, they share with us.
If only that sort of advice had any value to it. Stating the obvious (and widening the landing strip) gets you nowhere in this game.
Bautista's ADP is currently 48.89 – the end of the fourth round in a standard league. I can sign off on that. He'll carry eligibility at two positions (third and the outfield), and I like that his stats improved as the 2010 dream season went along (Bautista had a 1.099 OPS and 30 homers in the second half of the year). If pitchers didn't figure out Bautista down the stretch last year, why should anything miraculously change in 2011? Bautista has always had a good eye at the plate, he's always been a pull-happy slugger with decent power, and he's gotten better at putting the ball in the air. I think he coasts past 30 home runs easily, and gives us a valuable three-category season.
Can Morrow become a star in the hitter-loaded AL East?
Sure, why not? When you've got the stuff Morrow has – he posted a ridiculous 10.95 K/9 rate last year – you've got a chance in any environment. Morrow's 2010 numbers were held back by two simple things: an unlucky hit rate (.342 BABIP) and an innings cap invoked by the club (they called it a day after 146.1 frames). Give Morrow a bigger workload this summer and you're looking at the cheapest 200 strikeouts on the board. Does last year's 4.49 ERA concern you? Take heart that his peripheral-suggested ERA was in the low-threes.
Will Adam Lind and Aaron Hill make it up to us in 2011?
Hill is certainly a guy I'd bet on. His 2010 numbers are filled with outliers – a wacky fly-ball spike, a putrid line-drive rate an ridiculous BABIP (.196). None of these things are consistent with his established career path. Look for him to be a poor man's Dan Uggla this time around, solid power with a mildly-detracting average. Considering Hill's cheap ADP at the moment (164), you can make an easy profit on him.
As for Lind, you wonder if the Jays will ever reevaluate him as a full-time player. He's got a career .217/.264/.344 line against left-handed pitchers and he had a .341 OPS versus them in 2010. Why force a full-time gig on a player that's so desperately calling for a caddy? If Lind doesn't absolutely cripple right-handers, he's borderline unownable in a shallow or medium-sized mixer. And you know the risk with high-strikeout batters who strike out a lot – their slumps will drive you to drink (Maker's Mark, please).
Is J.P. Arencibia ready to slug his way onto our rosters?
The Jays will give him every chance to be the full-time catcher – Anthopoulos conceded a few weeks ago that Arencibia has "noting more to prove" in the minors. Arencibia had a monster season with Triple-A Las Vegas last year – a .301/.359/.626 slash with 32 taters in 412 at-bats – even though we have to take that production with a grain of PCL salt. He'll bring some batting-average risk to the table but we can live with that if he hits 20 mistakes out of the park. That's where I'll set the over/under.
I'm late for the Tragically Hip show – can I get the rest to go?
Cheap speed is all over the place in 2011 and Rajai Davis is one of the best names to target (ADP: 264). The Jays have to play him every day after the Wells swap, and while he's not an ideal leadoff man (.330 OPB), he's got the wheels to swipe between 50-70 bases in a full-time role. … Travis Snider clouted six homers in September and is going to show up on a lot of sleeper lists; he's got the first-round pedigree and some post-hype buzz. He trimmed his strikeout rate last year and posted a zesty line-drive rate (24.3 percent). … It's going to be a battle royale for the ninth inning, with Frank Francisco, Octavio Dotel, Jon Rauch and Jason Frasor each making their pitch. I've listed them in the order I trust them, not that John Farrell is soliciting my opinion. … Ricky Romero's breakthrough looks legitimate: he nudged his strikeout rate forward, kept the ball in the park more, and had just a tiny bump of his walk rate. He's got a tremendous change-up, and he did a better job spotting his fastball in 2010. Look for an ERA around 4 – acceptable in today's day and age – with a bushel of strikeouts (think 180 or more). … Get Escobar on your sleeper list as well; his demise in Atlanta seemed to be more about personality issues than anything else. His 2009 haul (.299-89-14-76-5) is within range and it won't cost much (current ADP of 386).
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Image courtesy Associated Press
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