Friday, January 28, 2011

Pressing Questions: The Seattle Mariners


Ken Griffey Jr. took a lot of heat for reportedly taking a nap in the Mariners clubhouse in the middle of a game last May. But, while Griffey took his lumps and not long afterwards left Seattle (and his playing career) in a huff, truth is, much of the Seattle organization was guilty of sleeping on the job last season.

Before the season began, Seattle was a buzzy playoff pick and even those that could see the warts that the more optimistic prognosticators turned a blind eye to couldn't have fathomed the depths to which this team would fall in 2010.

This time around, coming off 101 losses and without the benefit of four months of Cliff Lee, all eyes are wide open. This is a team severely lacking in quality veteran talent, especially on offense, where it scored 74 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.AL Cy Young winner Felix Hernandez and the baseball ninja, Ichiro, are the silver lining. Chone Figgins and a few others (very few) also offer some potential for fantasy owners. But, with the team's limited spending in free agency this offseason, it's clear it is already looking ahead to 2012 and beyond, with 2011 being a proving ground for some of the younger players.

With that in mind, let's begin this Pressing Questions with Seattle's brightest hope for the future:

When should we expect star prospect Dustin Ackley to arrive, and what should we expect when he does?

You'd be hard-pressed to find Ackley outside the top five of any reputable list of current top minor league prospects. The Arizona Fall League MVP and former consolation prize in the Stephen Strasburg sweepstakes is one of the top pure-hitting prospects to come along in a long time. He's got a sweet stroke, is a contact machine and can drive the ball with authority. He also offers plus speed. Long-term, he's got the makings of being a perennial top-tier fantasy 2B. But you'll have to temper the enthusiasm for 2011. GM Jack Zduriencik has been hinting that Ackley will spend some time in Triple-A to start the season, and with the team a farfetched contender, there's simply no reason to start his service time clock. That issue typically becomes moot after the first two months of the season, meaning that a June arrival makes a lot of sense. When Ackley does arrive, he'll most certainly be worth a flyer given his pedigree and the certainty that the M's will be playing him every day. However, his power peak is a long ways off and his ability to make his fleet feet work for him on the base paths is still a work in progress. If you take that into consideration along with the likelihood that he'll be slotted at the bottom of one of the worst lineups in the league, you just can't be overly optimistic about Ackley's fantasy impact this season. In standard 12-team league setups, try to avoid making the flaunt-your-knowledge vanity pick on Ackley.

Is David Aardsma going to be ready for the start of the season after hip surgery?

Aardsma, he of 79 saves over the past two seasons, had hip surgery this offseason and it turned out that repairing his damaged hip labrum was more extensive than initially expected. He was supposed to be back in the mix after rehab at some point in the middle of the upcoming Cactus League play. But Zduriencik revealed early in the new year that the timetable was likely to be pushed back a couple weeks, seriously putting opening day availability in doubt. Setup man Brandon League is the assumed end-game replacement. He's a tough chore for hitters because of his high heat and ability to induce grounders, and he's likely to do an admirable job in the role while Aardsma is out. But make no mistake, Aardsma will get his job back the moment he's deemed fit to pitch because the Mariners are motivated to deal him, and they'll need to showcase him as much as possible early in the year to prove he's plenty healthy and still effective.

Was Mike Parrott (pictured) the worst pitcher of all time?

From a career standpoint, no. But you could make a strong case that his 1980 season with Seattle was the worst single-season pitching performance of all-time and, perhaps, the worst of all major sports. Parrott won his first start of 1980 (on opening day!), but then went on to lose 16 straight games. He finished the season with an ERA of 7.28 and a WHIP of 1.89 in 94 IP. He also lost his first two decisions of '81 to run his consecutive losses streak to 18 games.

Where there's Smoak will there be fire in 2011?

If there is a fantasy x-factor on Seattle, it's Justin Smoak. We know what the veterans bring to the table, and I've already explained why Dustin Ackley isn't likely to make his mark in fantasy this season. But Smoak, given his pedigree, is very capable of doing something pleasantly surprising. After flaming out in late July with a .198 batting average in a combined 86 games between Texas and Seattle, Smoak was sent down to Triple-A Tacoma, where he got his mechanics in check and started to show the kind of power (7 HRs in 35 games) that made him one of the top minor league prospects entering 2010. When he returned to Seattle in September, he remained in recovery mode, hitting .340 with 3 HRs in the final 14 games of the season.

Smoak had to deal with a lot in his rookie tour. Not only was he a 23-year-old facing MLB pitching for the first time, but he was dealt the added pressure of being the key piece of the Cliff Lee deal when he arrived in Seattle during the summer. In addition, he had to deal with a large amount of bad luck, as he had the seventh-best Line Drive% among all hitters with at least 390 plate appearances, yet finished with the 14th-lowest (.255) BABIP. He's a 20 HR/75 RBI consideration for the late rounds that, if luck is on his side, is capable of 25/90.

Source: http://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/blog/roto_arcade/post/Pressing-Questions-The-Seattle-Mariners?urn=fantasy-312940

Matt Niskanen Maxim Noreau Lawrence Nycholat Shane O Brien

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