They say everything is big in Texas. The Rangers offense a year ago was no exception. Last summer, the AL champs, led by MVP Josh Hamilton, blazed a trail to their first ever World Series appearance, coasting to a West-best 90 wins. Though the storybook ending didn't materialize, this is a team that enters 2011 as a clear contender. Gone are Cliff Lee and Vlad Guerrero, but after adding Adrian Beltre and ageless reliever Arthur Rhodes, a significant step backward doesn’t appear to be in the cards.
The virtual masses will invest heavily in the explosive Rangers offense. They should. Barring injuries or a massive suckitis outbreak, sensational numbers from several players are very likely. Still, as with every team in this ongoing feature, there are many unanswered questions about Ron Washington’s club entering spring training. It’s time to quench your curiosity…
1) Will Elvis Andrus be the most overpriced commodity in drafts?
Next to ballpark brewskis, bleacher seats at Wrigley and Carlos Zambrano, Andrus is the biggest scam in baseball, real or imaginary. Invest in his services, and the Bernie Madoff of shortstops will surely rob you blind. Disagree? Below are the 2010 lines of three disguised shortstops along with their current ADPs from Mock Draft Central:
Player X: 586-.265-0-35-88-32, ADP 68.65
Player Y: 585-.282-18-70-82-13, ADP 98.51
Player Z: 565-.278-15-61-83-10, ADP 126.62
Unless you’re desperate for steals, Player X is far less desirable. He’s completely dwarfed in three categories. Yet owners on average are selecting X some 30-60 picks ahead of the more valuable comparisons.
Obviously, the player with the glaring donut in homers is Andrus. The other two are Alexei Ramirez and Stephen Drew.
Andrus is a talented, unrefined player who will generate appreciable steals again this season. However, with a GB/FB split (3.13) that makes Juan Pierre look like Jose Bautista, his chances of reaching double-digits in homers are minimal. More damning, Washington is leaning toward replacing the exorbitant shortstop with Ian Kinsler in the leadoff spot, a crushing blow to his run-scoring potential. After he notched a .338 OBP in the catbird seat last year, the move is justified.
Bottom line: Based on his current inflated price tag, Elvis won’t be a hunka-hunka of burning love for owners this season.
2) Will the Rangers completely destroy Neftali Feliz?
Once he wrested away closing duties from Frank Francisco in mid-April, Feliz was nothing short of spectacular, establishing a new AL saves rookie record with 40. Despite his end-game dominance, GM Jon Daniels is still toying with the idea of stretching out the 22-year-old this spring in preparation for a transition back into the rotation.
Yes, the Rangers have several viable closing options, most notably Francisco, but expanding Feliz's workload could be a costly mistake. Because of his ability to miss bats (9.22 K/9 in '10), his high fly-ball yield (50.6 FB% in career) hasn’t haunted him often in relief, but it could if pressed into extended action. His stuff is unquestionably sensational, particularly his mid-90s fastball. However, as Byung-Hyun Kim proved a few years back, some pitchers, no matter how gifted, are best-suited for short work in high-leverage situations.
Until the Rangers clearly define Feliz’s role in 2010, he’s a risky selection at his current 115.26 ADP.
3) Is former NL Cy Young winner Brandon Webb a complete waste of roster space?
Webb, once tabbed one of the league’s most reliable starters, has been plagued by chronic shoulder problems over the past two seasons. Signing a one-year, incentive-laced deal earlier this month, he finally appears to be on the fast-track to recovery. Barring a setback, he is expected to compete for a rotation spot this spring.
Webb might be the most fascinating pitcher wearing Rangers red this March. Because he’s a soft-tosser, location, not velocity, will be the most important factor to monitor in Cactus League action. If the sink on his fastball and accuracy of his change are present, he could be a draft day steal. Considering he’s posted a 3.56 GB/FB in his career, the crafty righty is properly equipped to defy the ball-jumping effects of Rangers Ballpark. Stash him late.
4) Can Adrian Beltre actually deliver post-payday?
During contract years Beltre has produced monstrous numbers in Los Angeles and Boston. Unfortunately, after fattening his wallet in Seattle, his production slipped into a seemingly irrecoverable abyss. But a repeat of what little he accomplished in a Mariners uniform is very unlikely.
Washington has tentatively slated Beltre for cleanup work. Sandwiched between Hamilton and Nelson Cruz, he should post outstanding totals. Texas’ slew of table-setters and favorable hitting environment will surely entrench the hot corner well inside the position’s top-10, assuming the unprotected infielder doesn't shatter his invaluable merchandise. His AVG will probably slide, but a finishing line around .285-25-100-90-5 is reachable. Recall in 219 career at-bats in Arlington, he’s tallied a .306/.501/.857 line.
5) PQ pick ‘em – What side has more: Nelson Cruz filed restraining orders against The Noise or Ian Kinsler stints on the DL?
The Noise’s feelings for Cruz are quite disturbing. For the sake of impressionable eyes and ears, vivd dreams involving the slugger, a shake weight, maple syrup and yours truly are not suitable for this forum. Due to these creepy mantasies, odds are strong the courts will be busy in the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area. Remember, on a per game basis last year, only Carlos Gonzalez, Hamilton, Carl Crawford and Bautista were better than Cruz. If his day-to-day nags don’t turn into prolonged absences, he’s bound to finish in range of .300-35-110-85-25, a discounted CarGo. That happens and inappropriate text messages will be sent.
Kinsler, who was placed on the DL twice last year, would likely break a bone wrestling air, but without question, the Noise’s unhealthy affection for Cruz seals this debate.
6) Sleeper showdown: David Murphy or Derek Holland?
Because of his double-digit upside in homers and steals, Murphy is a valuable low-dollar asset in very deep leagues. Unfortunately, the organization’s commitment to Julio Borbon in center likely means he will begin the season as a utility outfielder. Upside is there, but an injury has to occur in order to from the backup to log consistent at-bats. For mixed leaguers, he's a waivers product to watch.
Holland, on the other hand, is prime Rip Van Winkle material. The subject of much trade talk over the past couple seasons, the former top farmhand – he was labeled the No. 2 prospect in the Rangers system by Baseball America in 2009 – could finally develop into a solid mid-tier starter. In his brief MLB career, the southpaw has shown flashes, but various injuries have stunted his growth. If he can maintain a GB/FB above 1.00 and locate the strike-zone more efficiently (3.77 BB/9 in '10), he has the potential to match what Colby Lewis did a season ago. Keep in mind in 11 starts with Triple-A Oklahoma City last year, he posted a 1.87 ERA and 51:18 K:BB split in 62.2 innings. His noteworthy September with the senior club (27 IP, 3.67 ERA, 27:11 K:BB) could be a sign of profits to come.
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Image courtesy of US Presswire
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