Feel the buzz and electricity, gamers; your make-believe championship is in the balance. Let's review some add/drop principles, and starting lineup principles, as we try to get you into the winner's circle.
• If you can't beat him, join him. Don't shake in fear when you look at the star quarterback on your opponent's roster – look at the waiver wire and see if you can get in on the production. Maybe you can get one of the Philip Rivers targets in San Diego, or snag a Blair White from Indy (now that Austin Collie is, sadly, back in post-concussion limbo).
• Cover yourself for the late games. The Vikings illustrated this point Monday night, throwing a couple of surprise personnel moves at us (Brett Favre in, Adrian Peterson out). Your bench won't allow for 50 contingency plans, but make sure you have a few audibles ready if unusual late news filters in. And keep your flex or utility spots open as long as you can during the weekly game, to allow for maximum flexibility.
• When looking for a defense or kicker, roll with a big favorite. These two positions are more team-dependent and game-result dependent than the standard spots, and you'll notice every week that the kickers and defenses from winning teams are the majority of your top scorers here. The biggest favorites in Week 16 are the Steelers (-14 over Carolina), Eagles (NL, but a heavy choice over the Vikings) and Chargers (-8 at Cincinnati).
• Wind is your enemy; most other weather can be overcome. The Patriots didn't have any problems negotiating the Chicago snow two weeks ago, and we saw how easily the Bears scored at Minnesota on Monday night. Wind gusts of 25 mph and above are problematic for a passing game, but most of the other off-weather conditions tend to be overrated as fantasy considerations. If you prefer to use weather (or location) as a final tie-breaker, okay, I'll sign off on that. But in most cases it shouldn't be driving your decisions.
• Go for the block. Take some time to identify what your opponent needs most in free agency; in many cases, it will make sense to grab a few players you don't need merely because you want them away from his roster. I'm not saying you should spam the waiver wire and pick up and drop every consideration for your opponent (that's not how the game should be played), but it's perfectly acceptable (and smart) to take 1-2 guys off the top of the pile.
• Managing floor and upside. If you're a heavy favorite to win your game, your weekly decisions should be more conservative in nature. If you're a giant underdog in your matchup, you need to swing for more upside in your choices. Maybe that means linking a quarterback with a receiver, or gambling on a rushing quarterback over a more traditional dropback guy. (You also might want to make roster alternations if your game gets off to a crazy start in the middle of the week's flow.)
• Go where the points are. When in doubt with a lineup choice, the game's over/under makes for a handy tie-breaker. Houston and Denver are expected to combine for 49 points this week – that's the highest total on the slate – while the Jets and Bears are down around 37.
These rules of thumb have served me well over the years, but they're certainly not the only ones out there. How do you make your decisions at this time of the year, and how do you break ties in key spots? Let's discuss in the comments.
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