The latest news and best bets in our daily horse racing blog as Mikael D'Haguenet returns to the track at Leopardstown
5.45pm Quinlan pulls off Lingfield coup
Chris Cook: Mick Quinlan had a double at Lingfield today, thanks to two well-backed horses whose recent form was woeful. M'colleague Will Hayler has been looking into the matter and will have a wee story in tomorrow's paper.
3.55 Woe, woe and thrice woe. Organisateur leaves it too late
Chris Cook: Taunton is a sharp track, where there is an obvious risk that, if you leave your challenge until too late, you may not be able to reel in a front-runner who keeps going. Nick Scholfield could tell you all about that after he got Woolcombe Folly beaten there in April 2008.
Yet Ian Popham settled Organisateur in midfield and was still several lengths behind the well-fancied Dynaste turning for home. Organisateur finished strongly to force a photo-finish with Dynaste and appeared to be in front just a stride after the line, twisting the knife in the wound for anyone who backed him at 8-1.
2.31pm Mullins hopes Mikael was flat after recent race
Greg Wood: Mikael D'Haguenet is the second major fancy from the Willie Mullins yard to lose at long odds-on this week, as he trails home in fifth behind 10-1 chance Realt Dubh in the Bord Na Mona Novice Chase.
The favourite did not jump well, making a bad mistake four out and then another at the second-last, just as he needed to be taking closer order.
"I hope he was just flat after Fairyhouse [earlier this month]," Mullins said. "I wasn't happy from the fifth fence, he just wasn't jumping down the back and lost his rhythm."
Mullins must now sketch out an immediate plan for Mikael D'Haguenet that ideally involves getting him off the mark over fences before considering whether to send him to Cheltenham.
Hills pushed him out to 16-1 (from 7-1) for the RSA Chase in March, while Realt Dubh, who might not have won but for the last-fence fall of Saludos, can be backed at 25-1 for the Arkle Trophy.
2.18pm Mikael's jumping to the right may not be new
Chris Cook: Mikael D'Haguenet won four times at left-handed courses as a hurdler but it may be worth noting the Racing Post's analysis of his win at Navan in December 2008, when he beat Pandorama. "Jumped slightly to the right at most hurdles," it says in the analysis, so perhaps Mikael has long had a preference for right-handed tracks that has become evident under the greater duress of jumping fences.
There was no sign of such a thing on his Irish chasing debut a fortnight ago, but of course that was at right-handed Fairyhouse. Left-handed Leopardstown appears to have exposed his limitations and there must be a fear that Cheltenham would do the same.
2.05pm Mikael stuffed after jumping poorly!
Chris Cook: Mikael D'Haguenet had won the previous six races in which he completed the course but he has been well beaten at Leopardstown just now. He travelled well through the early stages but his jumping was often sketchy and he went to his right at most fences. Paul Townend was easing down on him before the last and he finished a distant fifth.
The race was won by Realt Dubh (10-1) ahead of Noble Prince (5-1) and Torphichen (10-1).
It may have been an expensive couple of days for followers of Mikael's trainer, Willie Mullins, and Townend, as they also suffered defeat with Zaidpour (1-4) yesterday, though they won later with Hurricane Fly.
1.35pm O'Grady may take Sailors to Festival
Greg Wood: Sailors Warn was a very easy winner of the Bord Na Mona Juvenile Hurdle, a Grade Two, comprehensively reversing recent Fairyhouse form with the 6-4 favourite, Toner D'Oudairies, in the process.
Toner D'Oudairies was well below his best, but Sailors Warn could not have done it much more smoothly. "I thought that, if he finished in the first four, we might think about the Fred Winter [Juvenile Hurdle at Cheltenham in March] for him," Eddie O'Grady, his trainer, said afterwards.
1pm Greg Wood reports from Leopardstown
An early start here in Ireland as Hidden Universe, a Grade One bumper winner at Punchestown last year, makes a successful debut over timber in the maiden hurdle. These races are often worth much closer attention in Ireland than similar events in the UK and, with a purse of 12,000 euros, there should have been a bit of depth to it.
Hidden Universe was never in serious danger, though, having been taken into the lead from an early stage by the leading amateur Robbie McNamara, the younger brother of top professional rider Andrew.
"He jumped big and jumped safe, and I'd imagine that, if there had been a better pace in the race, he'd have jumped even better," said the winning trainer, Demot Weld. "I think a faster pace, where he could have followed something and got a nice lead, would have been better. Nobody wanted to go on, so Robbie did the right thing. He jumped the first like a fence, but he's a very athletic horse and a very good one.
"We'll see how he comes out of the race. He's only a four-year-old rising five and I'm in no hurry with him. We'll pick a winners' race sometime in February and see how he progresses from there.
"He's a very big horse, nearly 17 hands, and he'll have learned a lot from today. He's potentially a horse with a big future, he's a Grade One bumper winner, so you'd expect him to do what he did today.
"We'll have a look at them [Grade One events] as the year goes on, and we'll let him tell us."
Hidden Universe was already prominent in betting for the Supreme Novice Hurdle and was cut to 12-1 (from 14-1) by Hill's.
The main focus of attention here today is the Grade One Bord Na Mona With Nature Novice Chase, in which Mikael D'Hageunet will start at odds-on. He was a faller at the last on his first start over fences a couple of weeks ago, but looked to be going like a winner at the time and his many followers will expect to get their money back today.
Whether Noble Prince (2.00) should be quite so big to beat him is another matter, as he was a useful hurdler who took well to fences at Punchestown in October. At around 6-1 on Betfair, he is a decent bet, while Smoking Aces (2.30) has solid claims too.
Today's best bets, by Chris Cook
The main event today is Leopardstown's Grade One novice chase at 2pm, in which Mikael D'Haguenet is a hot favourite, despite his last-fence fall at Fairyhouse a fortnight ago. The only horse to beat Pandorama when that horse completed the course, he was absent for 19 months with, reportedly, "splint and muscle problems" before his latest run.
Still, it seems he has suffered no loss of ability and he is still only six. A very classy hurdler, he beat Karabak, Diamond Harry, China Rock, Knockara Beau and The Nightingale when winning at the 2009 Festival and he would probably have won at Fairyhouse (his first chase run since leaving France in 2008) but for his tumble. Even then, he seemed to jump the fence as cleanly as he had cleared the rest, only for his legs to give way on landing.
He's 8-11, which seems short enough in view of the various things you could worry about, but I can't make a case for any of the others. It's a race to watch, especially in light of rumours that, if all goes well, Mikael could show up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup rather than a novice race at the Festival. Connections are said to be aware that they may not get many complete seasons from this fragile talent and may opt to take on the big boys while they can.
I'm surprised to see Organisateur (3.30) is not more fancied at Taunton, where he is 8-1 to repeat the easy course and distance success he enjoyed last month. He has, of course, been raised a full stone for that five-length win but Paul Nicholls' charge is a young, in-form horse with a fair capacity for progress and three course wins to his name in 2010.
Dynaste, of course, can hardly be blamed for getting beaten by Aegean Dawn, one of the all-time handicap blots, at Cheltenham but I can see little percentage in taking a short price (11-4) about horses who have been raised 11lb for a defeat and David Pipe's stable cannot match Nicholls' for form at the moment.
Semi Colon (2.25) made her racecourse debut in a Cheltenham bumper in April in which her trainer, Nicky Henderson, has a good record. Well backed, she found the course too testing and didn't get home against decent opposition but hacked up at the much sharper Hereford, albeit in a weaker race, on her second start last month.
Taunton seems the right place for her hurdling debut and 6-4 is a fair assessment of her chances against the frustrating Chilli Rose. Tazzarine is interesting and unexposed but seems completely unfancied on Betfair.
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Source: http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/blog/2010/dec/30/horse-racing-live-30-december-2010
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